Tour de France is too tough for Evans

THE Canberra-raised Michael Rogers has joined cycling veteran Stuart O'Grady in declaring Cadel Evans cannot win the Tour de France.

"It's a big ask physically of Cadel to win -- realistically he just hasn't got the men around him," Rogers told The Weekend Australian from his base at Varese in northern Italy before leaving for Monte Carlo and today's demanding 15km time trial.
"I simply can't see him being up there fighting for the yellow jersey at the end of three tough weeks of racing.
"There's just too many other factors that will be working against him. You have to factor in Lance Armstrong's return to the Tour, his Astana teammates Alberto Contador and Levi Leipheimer, and last year's winner Carlos Sastre.
"Then just for good measure, the race organisers have pencilled in Mt Ventoux, a bugger of a climb at the best of times, on the second-last day.
"Ventoux is just relentless.
I don't think GC (general classification) will be decided until the second-last day."
Rogers, a former top-10 finisher and one of Columbia-HTC's leading contenders for the overall classification, says Evans lacks the condition and team strength required to stand on the top step of the podium in Paris.
"For sure he's strong, but I don't think he has the condition to win the race," Rogers told ABC Radio yesterday.
"His team is probably his weakest point. He just hasn't got the background (support) a team like Astana has with Contador, Armstrong and Leipheimer. They're obviously going to throw everything they've got at him."
O'Grady, who lines up for his 13th start in the Tour with Saxo Bank, said Evans "had shown all his cards at the Dauphine Libere, where he again finished second.
"Only the team with the strongest riders will figure in the overall in what is shaping as a demanding Tour from kilometre zero to 3500," O'Grady said.
Evans's chances had a major setback just days before the start when Silence Lotto teammate Thomas Dekker -- expected to help the Victorian in the high mountains -- was ruled out after testing positive for the banned blood-booster EPO after a retrospective test from 2007.
Rogers, who will be joined on the start line by Bathurst's Mark Renshaw, missed last year's race due to illness, and crashed out of the 2007 edition.
He says missing out on the possibility of wearing the yellow jersey because of the crash will provide additional inspiration when he rolls down the start ramp of today's time trial.
"To be so close to living your boyhood dream, and having that taken away from you relatively fast is a big blow mentally," the triple world time trial champion said.
"But it makes me more hungry for success this year."
Renshaw's role for the team will be as lead-out man in the bunch sprints for Britain's Mark Cavendish, the winner of four stages last year. "I'm going to the Tour to work for Cav," he said. "I knew that when I signed from Credit Agricole last year.
"I thought we worked well together at the Giro."
While Armstrong's Spanish teammate Alberto Contador, the 2007 winner, is firm favourite to take his second title from the comeback rider and fellow American Leipheimer, the Texan is not so sure.
"You have to maintain morale, maintain a cohesive group in the race," Armstrong said. "Physically I'm prepared. I know what's required to be at the front or to win.
"There can't be a divide within the team -- if there is, then the likes of a Sastre, (Denis) Menchov, the Schleck brothers (Frank and Andy) or a Cadel Evans will take advantage."